Leaders with foresight are able to see positive visions of the future and can inspire others to help make it a reality. Leaders who stand above the pack are those who can motivate others to make a difference, and by doing so can move those same people onto the path that leads to the vision of the future. In this article, we will examine the leadership attribute of foresight, describe a process to use to develop this skill, and discuss how to leverage your mentoring relationship to improve your effectiveness.

Foresight Leadership Defined

Those who exercise foresight in their leadership are effective in the present by combining the lessons from the past with the aspirations of the future. Foresight in leadership is not guessing about the future, nor is it simply forecasting current trends into the future. Foresight is seeing the relevant opportunities that are emerging and giving others a larger vision or purpose in which to strive for attainment. It means seeing the future and anticipating its impact. When times are good, leaders with foresight anticipate the downturn; when times are hard, leaders with foresight anticipate the next growth trend.

 

Leaders who practice foresight effectively do not get trapped in the past or the present, but rather envision a preferred future. They see the possibilities and lead others toward these opportunities. In fact, foresight is such an integral leadership quality that the ability to project it effectively directly impacts the following leadership domains.

 

Leadership Domains and Foresight

 

Foresight: A Model of Time

Foresight is often perceived as a mystical gift that the fortunate possess, but I contend that we all use foresight on a regular basis. More often than not we have predictive hunches about the future, but often stifle them in an effort not to appear out of sync with current evidence. We have all had experiences where we have a “moment of clarity” and realize that a future event is upon us (usually in spite of a lack of evidence). This makes it more difficult to rely on than the trends and facts that we are currently contending with.

 

My understanding of foresight is less mystical and more rooted in the way our brains function. Our subconscious is always at work spotting patterns and anomalies, and it makes connections that are predictive in nature. When this happens, it surprises us by its seemingly sudden appearance. Regardless of whether we are expecting it or it takes us by surprise, these epiphanies hold valuable messages about future possibilities. The real challenge is to harness the power of foresight and bring it practically into our leadership.

 

The Foresight Model shown here illustrates that productive foresight is not bound by the past or set on an improbable future. Instead, it is focused on a future that current action can influence and shape. At either end of the model are counterproductive applications of forecasting: short-sighted (stuck in the past) and disconnected (a distorted future).

 

Each of the three regions displayed in the model has distinct attributes that affect how productive our foresight is in relation to our ability to lead others.

 

Short-Sighted
Leaders who operate out of short-sighted foresight project very little beyond what is currently discernable. They are often hindered by either the pain (difficulties) or the heroics (grand successes) of the past. A painful past can cause distrust regarding high aspirations about the future. It simply becomes easier to aim low rather than believe big when it comes to viewing a probable future. Heroic pasts can cause leaders to continually apply the same methodologies that worked in the past even after they have ceased to produce the same results. In both cases the effect is the same: small thinking that finds it difficult to envision anything beyond nominal success. Short-sighted leaders can get labeled as too conservative, cautious, and unimaginative.

 

Disconnected
Leaders who operate out of disconnected foresight project a skewed version of the future. Future projections from this leader will either be overly pessimistic or optimistic. They often go too far into an uncertain future state and come back with distorted views of the future. Some fixate on a catastrophic future where all current activity becomes futile, and others set their minds on a utopian future where all current activity feels small and insignificant. In either case, most followers sense a disconnection from current reality and find it difficult to commit themselves to a leader who espouses an uncertain or exaggerated future. Disconnected leaders can get labeled as eccentric, difficult, confusing, and irrelevant.

 

Productive
Leaders who operate out of productive foresight project an attractive understanding of the future that others can commit to. They are able to look beyond current assumptions and trends to see possible future opportunities. This strategic foresight is translated into workable plans that make real connections to meaningful work. The focus is always on creating meaning and purpose that guides the work with a forward-leaning posture. Followers feel a sense of inspiration and excitement about shaping and molding a preferred future. This leads to personal commitment and dedication to the leader’s plans and decisions. This type of leader is often seen as resourceful, visionary, inspiring, and transformational.

 

Time Span of Discretion
The most difficult aspect of practicing foresight is knowing how far out into the future you need to project in order to have the greatest impact and relevance. According to Elliott Jaques’ time span of discretion theory, the higher up in the organizational hierarchy you rise, the more responsibility you have, and consequently the longer time span that you need to operate from. We can use his research as a guide to determine the proper distance into the future that an individual should consider when practicing foresight.

 

Adapted from Elliott Jaques’ concepts by Triple Creek

 

This model is meant to serve as a reference and not as a prescriptive guide on the appropriate span of time that should be used. What it does represent is that the more complex your leadership role is, the further into the future you will need to focus in order to be effective in your foresight. It also suggests that forecasting too far into the future with those who are at lower levels in the organization can be perceived as disconnected leadership. On the flip side, if you do not project far enough into the future, your leadership can be perceived as short-sighted.

 

Developing Productive Foresight

Foresight is a very dynamic process that changes swiftly, and most of us fluctuate in applying it productively. The goal is to be able to call upon foresight when you need it and feel confident that it will provide you with the insights needed to lead effectively. With this in mind, consider the following process for improving your productive foresight ability.

 

Tune into Yourself

Before entering into important dialogues, get in the habit of searching your state of mind to see if you are able to assume a productive listening posture. Simply check in with yourself to see if you are carrying any emotional energy that could get in the way of your ability to listen proactively. This could show up as conflicting biases, prejudices, beliefs, theories, methods, or understandings. Then check in to determine if you will be able to give your full attention to someone else at this time.

 

Often, just being aware of your energy and emotional levels will allow you to set your concerns aside long enough to listen attentively and productively. If you are able to name or label your concerns, it helps to raise conscious awareness of the issues that you will need to guard against in order to have a productive listening experience. 

Forecasting Process

1. Listen

Foresight begins with the past. The past holds the rhythms and patterns that give us clues about the future. The more you understand about the past, the better equipped you will be to predict the future. In a sense, the past speaks to us about deep truths and indicators of the future. In a similar way, the future is speaking to us today and we need to train ourselves to see the signs and patterns of the future in the present. The way to do this is to quiet ourselves, pay attention, and be willing to pursue a hunch, premonition, or intuitive impression that offers a future aspiration.

2. Reflect

Once you think you have discerned a future opportunity, you need to carefully consider its full meaning. Take time to consciously reflect on the issues that surround the hoped for opportunity. Seek to understand the conditions that have to exist to make this opportunity materialize and gauge the effort, resources, and time required to make it a reality. If you determine that the reward outweighs the cost to make it happen, then proceed to the next step in the process.

 

3. Forecast

Now that you have thought the opportunity through, create a plan, model, or strategy that you believe will bring your opportunity into reality. Attempt to add as much concrete detail as you can in your forecast. Be sure to include anticipated investments, risks, impacts to current systems and structures, resisters, and desired outcomes.

 

4. Collaborate

Once you have a detailed forecast, you need to get the input and opinions of those who have more experience and wisdom than you have. Consider getting feedback from industry experts, subject matter experts, or trusted advisors who can help ensure that you have not overlooked anything important. This step will help separate you from the process and make your results more palatable and less subjective to others.

 

Whatever survives this process will have to be re-evaluated to determine if it is still valid and worth pursuing. Do not be discouraged if you decide to not pursue the opportunity. The forecasting process itself is often revealing and helps us to understand the limits of the potential future that we are aspiring for.  

 

Due to the subjective nature of foresight, it is advisable to practice it within the confines of a trusting and reliable relationship. This makes mentorship the ideal environment to experiment and share honestly about your foresight abilities. Your mentoring partner can share his/her experiences and insights into the practice of foresight and help you work through the forecasting process.

 

The practice exercise that follows provides a starting point for you and your mentoring partner.

 

Practice Exercise

The following exercise can help you discuss with your mentoring partner how to become more productive in your foresight.

1. Use the following self-evaluation to assess your foresightful ability.

Self-Evaluation
Recall a recent time when you had to create a strategic plan or exercise your foresight in a leadership capacity. With this memory in mind, rate how closely you agree with the following statements.

 

Short-Sighted Tendencies (low score is desirable)	Low				High
I felt that I needed to aim low and avoid risks.	1	2	3	4	5
I felt that I needed to repeat the past.	1	2	3	4	5
I decided not to dream big, though I thought it was possible.	1	2	3	4	5

 

Disconnected Tendencies (low score is desirable)	Low				High
I was overly optimistic.	1	2	3	4	5
I was overly pessimistic.	1	2	3	4	5
It was harder than expected to get commitment from others.	1	2	3	4	5

 

Productive Tendencies (high score is desirable)	Low				High
I was able to see beyond the current trends and data.	1	2	3	4	5
I was able to see multiple options that were viable.	1	2	3	4	5
I was able to create excitement and high purpose for others.	1	2	3	4	5

 

Time Span Accuracy (high score is desirable)	Low				High
I was able to see the appropriate distance into the future given my role.	1	2	3	4	5

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2. Discuss your self-evaluation results with your mentoring partner and solicit his/her perspective of your results.

3. If you have determined that you need to strengthen your foresight, decide what new actions you are going to take.

4. Set up a time to review your progress with your mentoring partner.

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